Healthcare product (medical device and biotech) investment, like all investment in the past four years, has been pinched, but not so much as one might believe. The total investment has been relatively stable, and in fact has increased recently in the both the aggregate and for medical devices specifically. What is more the case with investment in the post-9/11 and post dotcom era is the conservative shift in that investment, notably a shift in investment from earlier or expansion stage of company development to later stage investments. We’ve talked about this before. (Perhaps the most telling aspect over the past four years has been that MedMarket Diligence experienced a big increase in information purchased from the investment community, apparently no longer satisfied solely with their own research.)
The conservative shift is waning, however. We’ve read the tea leaves and see signs (numbers of deals, size of the deals, and numbers of startups forming) that opportunity-hungry investors are ready to take more chances.
Expect the following to happen in 2006 – barring any unforeseen global event (let’s be safe, but let’s also live our lives!). Aggregate investment in healthcare products will take a healthy jump, with a measurably bigger share going to medical devices, and investment will shift back upstream in the development cycle. Many more deals, at bigger average investments (i.e., $10 million each).
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